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Risks

PMF products hold pUSD and prediction market contract positions. Share value, quote availability, and redemption outcomes depend on market prices, vault accounting, capacity, solver execution, reconciliation, and settlement state.

PMF is in pilot. Controls, supported flows, product parameters, and operating procedures may change. Users should not assume continuous quoting, continuous liquidity, or mature production operations.

Product Risk​

PMF shares can gain or lose value. Product value can move because of:

  • Underlying price changes.
  • Changes in the underlying index.
  • Quote spread, execution cost, and policy controls.
  • NAV changes and valuation uncertainty.
  • Cash drag or tracking error.
  • Redemption queue, settlement state, or winddown state.

Liquidity And Capacity Risk​

A product can be visible while quote capacity is limited or unavailable. Creation capacity and redemption capacity can differ. The PMF may reject a quote request when current capacity cannot support the requested flow without increasing risk to existing shareholders. Capacity is measured as available liquidity on the orderbooks of the underlying markets. If the fund has order size greater than the resting liquidity can support then it is not able to execute orders.

Capacity controls protect existing shareholders from cash drag, adverse selection, and execution that is unsuitable for available prediction-market conditions.

NAV / Oracle Risk​

The PMF depends on fresh basket state, vault holdings scans, NAV reporting, and reconciliation between capital, shares, liabilities, and prediction-market positions. If these surfaces disagree or become stale, PMF should fail closed, not accepting orders or placing deposits, until the state is repaired.

NAV per share is an accounting reference, not a guaranteed executable price. AP quotes may differ from NAV because they incorporate market depth, expected execution cost, quote spread, capacity, stale-data protections, settlement state, policy controls, and product-specific risk limits.

Solver And Execution Risk​

Solvers execute on external prediction market exchanges. Execution quality can be affected by liquidity, slippage, stale market data, venue availability, and residual inventory. Solver failures should degrade capacity or stop execution rather than silently changing product exposure.

Settlement And Chain Risk​

Settlement routes and onchain transactions may be delayed, fail, or require recovery. Confirm destination account, settlement asset, expected output, minimum output, and transaction prompts before continuing.

Not Financial Advice​

These docs explain product mechanics. They are not financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.