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Risks

PMF Finance is available only where supported. Product access and settlement depend on policy, operational readiness, market data freshness, solver capacity, and onchain settlement state.

The product is designed to fail closed. If a required operational surface is unhealthy, new creation, redemption, or execution activity should stop instead of continuing with stale assumptions.

Product Risk​

PMF shares can gain or lose value. Product value can move because of:

  • Prediction-market price changes.
  • Changes in the selected market basket.
  • Liquidity and execution capacity.
  • NAV per share changes.
  • Quote spread and policy controls.
  • Redemption queue or settlement state.

Liquidity And Capacity​

A product can be visible while quote capacity is limited or unavailable. Smaller orders may be easier to quote than larger orders. The app may reject a quote request when current capacity cannot support the trade.

Capacity controls protect existing shareholders from cash drag, adverse selection, and execution that is too large for available prediction market liquidity.

Quote Risk​

Quotes expire quickly and are valid only for the exact signed action shown. This prevents stale prices and adverse selection against the PMF.

Do not rely on an old quote after the deadline, after changing size or product, or after the app reports a status change. The vault rejects expired, reused, or mismatched quote authorizations.

Solver And Execution Risk​

Solvers execute against external prediction-market venues. Execution quality can be affected by liquidity, slippage, stale market data, venue availability, geographic access, and residual inventory. Solver failures should degrade quote capacity or stop execution rather than silently changing product exposure.

Oracle, NAV, And Reconciliation Risk​

PMF depends on fresh index baskets, vault holdings scans, NAV reporting, and reconciliation between capital, shares, and prediction-market positions. If these surfaces disagree or become stale, production flow should fail closed until the state is understood.

Settlement And Chain Risk​

Settlement routes and onchain transactions may be delayed, fail, or require recovery. Confirm destination account, settlement asset, expected output, minimum output, and transaction prompts before continuing.

Emergency​

In the event of a critical issue or retirement of a PMF, the manager may close the fund. This means shareholders may redeem remaining capital directly from the vault contract without an AP or any intermediary.

Not Financial Advice​

These docs explain product mechanics. They are not financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.